By @Tseday

Ethiopia, a country rich in history and cultural heritage, stands at a critical geographical crossroads in the Horn of Africa.

Known for its diverse ethnic groups and ancient civilization, Ethiopia’s historical significance is profound.

One of the most notable events is the first Hijra, when early followers of Islam sought refuge in the Axumite Kingdom, finding sanctuary under a just ruler. This event symbolizes Ethiopia’s long-standing tradition of providing refuge and upholding justice.

However, today’s Ethiopia is under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a leader who starkly contrasts with the just ruler of the first Hijra.

Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, Ahmed was initially celebrated for his efforts in making peace with Eritrea. Yet, his tenure has since been marred by internal conflict, financial mismanagement, and human rights abuses.

This article explores Ethiopia’s potential engagement in a war on the Red Sea, serving the interests of the US and its allies, and the grave implications for the Ethiopian people.

Prime Minister Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018 was met with widespread optimism. His early efforts in reforming the government, releasing political prisoners, and making peace with Eritrea were seen as significant steps towards stability and progress. These achievements earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. However, his tenure has since taken a dark turn.

Ahmed’s administration has been characterized by brutal conflicts in several regions, notably Oromia, Tigray, and Amhara. The civil war in Tigray, which began in November 2020, has been particularly devastating. Reports of atrocities being committed, including mass killings, sexual violence, and forced displacements, have emerged. The Ethiopian government and its allies, including Eritrean forces, have been accused of committing genocide against the Tigrayan population.

In Oromia, the largest and most populous region, the government has been engaged in a violent crackdown against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Similar conflicts and state-sponsored violence have been reported in the Amhara region, further exacerbating ethnic tensions and humanitarian crises across the country.

The prolonged conflicts have not only shattered Ethiopia’s social fabric but also plunged the nation into economic turmoil. Ethiopia’s economy, once hailed as one of the fastest-growing in Africa, is now facing severe challenges. The cost of war, combined with mismanagement and corruption, has led to financial bankruptcy.

Ethiopia's internal struggles have not deterred Prime Minister Ahmed from seeking involvement in external conflicts. There is growing speculation that in a desperate bid to secure foreign exchange (FOREX)  Ethiopia may soon engage in a war on the Red Sea against the Yemeni Armed Forces’ (also known as Ansar Allah, and Houthis), serving the interests of the US and allies.

The Red Sea is a critical maritime route, essential for global trade and energy supplies. The Yemeni Armed Forces have been obstructing the free flow of maritime trade, targeting ships bound for Israel and causing significant disruptions since December 2023. The USA, UK, and their coalition allies have struggled to neutralize the Yemen Armed Forces, prompting considerations of involving regional powers like Ethiopia.

The Yemeni Armed Forces engagement in the Red Sea is motivated by their desire to deter the “israeli entity” from prolonging its mass murder of Palestinian civilians in what is now being dubbed as the ongoing israeli occupation’s genocide in Gaza. By targeting ships headed to the Israeli entity, the Yemeni Armed Forces aim at pressuring the israeli entity and its allies to immediately stop their crimes in Gaza.

Engaging in a war against Yemen would be sheer madness, especially that it is not Ethiopia’s fight, and it serves no purpose for its people.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key player in the region, has heavily invested in Ethiopia since Ahmed assumed power. The UAE’s investments span various sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure, and energy. However, these investments come with expectations of political and military support.

The UAE has over the past few years not only normalized ties with the israeli entity, but also strengthened its alliances with the latter and the US, thus aligning their geopolitical interests in the Red Sea.

Ahmed’;s willingness to engage Ethiopia in a war that does not serve its national interests, highlights his self-serving agenda. Reports indicate that Ahmed is prepared to sacrifice Ethiopian lives to maintain his power and secure foreign support. In a revealing interview with The New Yorker some two years ago, Ahmed expressed his readiness to fight and die for the US, boasting about Ethiopians; willingness to fight in foreign wars.

This reckless ambition disregards the overwhelming sentiment of the Ethiopians, who stand in solidarity with the Palestinians, and oppose any involvement in the Red Sea conflict. The war in the Red Sea would not only exacerbate Ethiopia’s internal crises but also drag the country into a complex and morally questionable international conflict.

Despite the grave human rights violations under Ahmed’s regime, the international community has largely failed to hold him accountable. Powerful countries, including the UAE, have continued to support Ahmed’s government, driven by their own geopolitical interests.

The UAE’s substantial investments in Ethiopia are not purely altruistic. They are part of a strategic effort to secure an ally in the Horn of Africa, a region of immense geopolitical importance. And it appears that the second largest GCC country’s support of Ahmed’s regime, has enabled the continuation of conflict and suffering in Ethiopia. Thus, by aligning with the UAE, the Ethiopian government has prioritized foreign interests over the well-being of its citizens.

The international community’s silence with respect to the documented atrocities committed by Ahmed’s regime is deafening. Human rights organizations have documented numerous violations, yet global powers have failed to take decisive action. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who once symbolized hope and reconciliation, now represents a regime responsible for widespread suffering and instability.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, once celebrated for his peace efforts, has now plunged his country into civil war, economic despair, and potential involvement in an international conflict on the Red Sea.

Ethiopia, a nation with a rich history and a legacy of providing refuge to others, now suffers from an unjust leadership that desperately seeks to maintain power, at any cost, even if it meant sacrificing the lives and future of Ethiopians.

As the Yemeni Armed Forces are engaged in the Red Sea, under international laws and norms, to deter the israeli occupation from carrying on with the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, Ethiopia’s involvement would only perpetuate the suffering in both regions.

The Ethiopian people deserve a leader who prioritizes their well-being and peace over foreign alliances and personal power. As Ethiopia stands at this critical juncture, the voices of its people must be heard, and their rights must be defended. The madness of going to war must be stopped, and international accountability must be enforced.